Posted on by Aas Rustad

All Conflict is Local: Modeling Sub-National Variation in Civil Conflict Risk

Most quantitative assessments of civil conflict draw on annual country-level data to determine a baseline hazard of conflict onset. The first problem with such analyses is that they ignore factors associated with the precipitation of violence, such as elections and natural disasters and other trigger mechanisms. Given that baseline hazards are relatively static, most of the temporal variation in risk is associated with such precipitating factors. The second problem with most quantitative analyses of conflict is that they assume that civil conflicts are distributed uniformly throughout the country. This is rarely the case; most intrastate armed conflicts take place in the periphery of the country, well away from the capital and often along international borders. Analysts fail to disaggregate temporally as well as spatially. While other contributions to this issue focus on the temporal aspect of conflict, this article addresses the second issue: the spatial resolution of analysis. To adequately assess the baseline risk of armed conflict, this article develops a unified prediction model that combines a quantitative assessment of conflict risk at the country level with country-specific sub-national analyses at first-order administrative regions. Geo-referenced data on aspects of social, economic, and political exclusion, as well as endemic poverty and physical geography, are featured as the principal local indicators of latent conflict. Using Asia as a test case, this article demonstrates the unique contribution of applying a localized approach to conflict prediction that explicitly captures sub-national variation in civil conflict risk.

719 Replies to “All Conflict is Local: Modeling Sub-National Variation in Civil Conflict Risk”

  1. It is not my first time to go to see this website,
    i am browsing this site dailly and get pleasant data from here everyday.

  2. Magnificent beat ! I wish to apprentice while you amend your web site,
    how can i subscribe for a weblog site? The account aided me a applicable deal.

    I had been tiny bit acquainted of this your broadcast offered bright transparent idea

  4. I do not know if it’s just me or if everyone else encountering problems with your site.
    It appears as though some of the written text on your content are running off the screen. Can somebody else please
    provide feedback and let me know if this is happening to them too?
    This might be a problem with my internet browser because I’ve had this happen before.

    Thank you

  5. Hey There. I found your blog using msn. This is a very well
    written article. I will make sure to bookmark it and return to read more of your useful information. Thanks for the post.
    I’ll definitely comeback.

  115. Have you ever heard of second life (sl for short). It is basically a video game where you can do anything you want. sl is literally my second life (pun intended lol). If you want to see more you can see these second life articles and blogs

  121. Pingback: tinder plus vs tinder gold

  128. Have you ever heard of second life (sl for short). It is basically a online game where you can do anything you want. SL is literally my second life (pun intended lol). If you want to see more you can see these second life websites and blogs

  140. Have you ever heard of second life (sl for short). It is basically a video game where you can do anything you want. Second life is literally my second life (pun intended lol). If you would like to see more you can see these sl authors and blogs

  144. Takipçi Neden Sat?n Al?n?r?

    Bu i?lem tamamen ki?inin iste?i ve bütçesi do?rultusunda yap?labilir.

    Yabanc? ve aktif Türk takipçiler ?eklinde ikiye ayr?lan takipçi sat?n al yönteminde organik ve gerçek büyüme sa?lamak ad?na Türk takipçi sat?n al
    seçene?i daha do?ru olur. Yabanc? takipçiler, gerçek kullan?c?
    olmad???ndan hesab? takip etmeyi b?rakmasa da be?eni ve yorum
    yapmayaca?? için sayfan?n etkile?imi az olur.

    https://www.takipcisatinalin.org/

  145. Youtube Abone

    Youtube abone sat?n alarak youtuber olman?z?n zaman? geldimi?

    tam yerinde oldu?unuzu lütfen unutmay?n?z. Sitemiz den verece?iniz tüm
    youtube aboneleri gerçek ki?ilerdir.
    Seçenekler a??a??daki gibi paketler olu?turarak sizlere sunmu? bulunmaktay?z.
    Youtube aboneler genelde h?zl? ba?lar fakat bazen dünya
    geneli yo?unluk nedeni ile bu süreç 0 – 12 saat kadar sürebilir bizi tercih
    etti?iniz için ?imdiden te?ekkür ederiz.
    Youtube de videolar?n?z s?n?rs?z izlenmesi ve bu
    saye de gelir elde etmek için youtube abone alarak hemen izlenmelerinize izlenme ekleyin!

  146. Have you ever heard of second life (sl for short). It is basically a video game where you can do anything you want. SL is literally my second life (pun intended lol). If you would like to see more you can see these Second Life authors and blogs

  147. ?nstagram türk takipçi sat?n al hizmeti öne çikan bir profile sahip olmak isteyen ki?ilerin en fazlaca tercih etmesi gereken hizmetler arasinda
    yer almaktadir. Yo?unlu?un yabanci takipçiler olmasi,
    ayni zamanda mevcut takipçilerin de bu durumu sorgulamasina sebebiyet verebilmektedir.
    Bu bakimdan Türk takipçiler ile çok daha reelçi ve etken bir görüntü yaratmak olanakli hale gelmektedir, Gerçek bir instagram kullan?c?s? olarak kaliteli
    takipçi almak için kesinlike instagram türk takipçi sat?n al i?lemi yapmal?s?n?z

  155. Have you ever heard of second life (sl for short). It is essentially a game where you can do anything you want. SL is literally my second life (pun intended lol). If you want to see more you can see these sl websites and blogs

  158. Have you ever heard of second life (sl for short). It is essentially a video game where you can do anything you want. SL is literally my second life (pun intended lol). If you want to see more you can see these second life authors and blogs

  162. Have you ever heard of second life (sl for short). It is basically a game where you can do anything you want. sl is literally my second life (pun intended lol). If you want to see more you can see these sl articles and blogs

  165. Instagram be?eni alarak profilini herkesten farkl? göster en iyi takipçi
    ve be?eni alma sitesi olan takip2018 den hemen takipçi yada
    be?eni alarak
    en profilinizi oldu?undan farkl? göstermek art?k çok kolay.
    Hemen takipçi ya da be?eni alabilmek için sitemize gitmenizi tavsiye ediyoruz.

    http://bit.ly/takipcibegenial

  166. Have you ever heard of second life (sl for short). It is basically a online game where you can do anything you want. sl is literally my second life (pun intended lol). If you would like to see more you can see these sl authors and blogs

  172. Have you ever heard of second life (sl for short). It is essentially a video game where you can do anything you want. SL is literally my second life (pun intended lol). If you would like to see more you can see these Second Life articles and blogs

  194. Have you ever heard of second life (sl for short). It is basically a game where you can do anything you want. SL is literally my second life (pun intended lol). If you would like to see more you can see these sl websites and blogs

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published.