Posted on by Aas Rustad

All Conflict is Local: Modeling Sub-National Variation in Civil Conflict Risk

Most quantitative assessments of civil conflict draw on annual country-level data to determine a baseline hazard of conflict onset. The first problem with such analyses is that they ignore factors associated with the precipitation of violence, such as elections and natural disasters and other trigger mechanisms. Given that baseline hazards are relatively static, most of the temporal variation in risk is associated with such precipitating factors. The second problem with most quantitative analyses of conflict is that they assume that civil conflicts are distributed uniformly throughout the country. This is rarely the case; most intrastate armed conflicts take place in the periphery of the country, well away from the capital and often along international borders. Analysts fail to disaggregate temporally as well as spatially. While other contributions to this issue focus on the temporal aspect of conflict, this article addresses the second issue: the spatial resolution of analysis. To adequately assess the baseline risk of armed conflict, this article develops a unified prediction model that combines a quantitative assessment of conflict risk at the country level with country-specific sub-national analyses at first-order administrative regions. Geo-referenced data on aspects of social, economic, and political exclusion, as well as endemic poverty and physical geography, are featured as the principal local indicators of latent conflict. Using Asia as a test case, this article demonstrates the unique contribution of applying a localized approach to conflict prediction that explicitly captures sub-national variation in civil conflict risk.

75 Replies to “All Conflict is Local: Modeling Sub-National Variation in Civil Conflict Risk”

  1. It is not my first time to go to see this website,
    i am browsing this site dailly and get pleasant data from here everyday.

  2. Magnificent beat ! I wish to apprentice while you amend your web site,
    how can i subscribe for a weblog site? The account aided me a applicable deal.

    I had been tiny bit acquainted of this your broadcast offered bright transparent idea

  4. I do not know if it’s just me or if everyone else encountering problems with your site.
    It appears as though some of the written text on your content are running off the screen. Can somebody else please
    provide feedback and let me know if this is happening to them too?
    This might be a problem with my internet browser because I’ve had this happen before.

    Thank you

  5. Hey There. I found your blog using msn. This is a very well
    written article. I will make sure to bookmark it and return to read more of your useful information. Thanks for the post.
    I’ll definitely comeback.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published.