What Explains Aid Project Success in Post-Conflict Situations?

This paper investigates the effectiveness of post-conflict aid at the project level and aims to identify post-conflict situations as a window of opportunity for project success. The Independent Evaluation Group dataset provides extensive information on the characteristics of World Bank projects including an independent rating of their success, supervision and evaluation quality. The paper estimates the probability of success of aid projects depending on the characteristics of the intervention and looks for possible special patterns in post civil war situations. The results suggest that the probability of success of World Bank projects increases as peace lasts. Supervision appears to be a crucial determinant of the success of projects, especially during the first years of peace. Although the results of the sector-level analysis need to be taken with caution, the authors find that projects in the transport sector and in the urban development sector appear more successful in post-conflict environments. On the contrary, education projects seem less successful and therefore need to be highly supervised. Projects in the private sector should wait as they face a higher probability of failure in the first years of peace.